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Positive OECD Indicators

Yesterday the OECD released its growth leading indicators based on December data. The Paris-based organization pointed to slowdowns in the U.S., the U.K. and Russia, steady growth in the eurozone, and an acceleration in India. OECD seems to be optimistic in relation to Brazil and China and suggested that slowdowns in these two economies may come to an end […]

Dilma Calls for a Tax Raise

As impeachment threats from the lower house of the Congress lose momentum, today president Rousseff called on for the approval of a new proposed tax on financial transactions in an attempt to obtain some extra money to balance the country’s books. Today, she addressed the congress in the legislative year’s opening ceremony for the first […]

Is Brazil the fixed income trader of the year?

 A provocative article from the Financial Times’ ‘Beyondbrics’ blog came out a couple days ago, “Brazil: the fixed income trade of year”. All really good, Petrobras scandal, contracting economy, low commodity prices, lost investment grade and whatnot. The market is allegedly factoring interest rates hikes of 300 basis points over the next couple of years […]

Brazil Close ties to Argentina

According to Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa today in Davos an upside to the Real depreciation is that now there will be a revival in regional trade with Argentina as the two countries’ exchange-rate regimes are better aligned. Nelson Barbosa met with his Argentine counterpart, Alfonso Prat-Gay, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting and were said to have […]

How to Bury an Economy in Coma

For those who read Portuguese, a great article from Veja columnist Geraldo Samor came out this morning. He explains how three speeches over the last couple of days completely undermine any hope for the the Brazilian economy in 2016. Starting with Central Bank’s governor Alexandre Tombini, who in the day before the COPOM meeting announced that the […]

Book: Brazil: The Troubled Rise of a Global Power

    Planning on getting this paperback this week. Judging by cover, I’m expecting updates covering the raging economy’s downturn since the hardcover came out two years ago. I’ll provide updates as the reading progresses.  Michael Reid’s previous book, “Forgotten Continent” is highly recommended.

Fitch’s New Report on Brazil

Fitch release this morning a new report on Brazil (Brazil’s Loss of Investment Grade: Ratings Downgrade Drivers and Future Trajectory) in which the rating firm explains that its December 2015 downgrade of Brazil’s sovereign rating to speculative grade (BB+) was a reflection of the country’s deeper economic recession, adverse fiscal developments, rising government debt burden, and […]

Concerns over China and Brazil lower IMF forecasts for 2016

The IMF released today its global growth forecast for 2016.  Fears over slowdown in the Chinese economy and severe recession in Brazil have led it to reduced its forecast for to 3.4 percent and for 2017 to 3.6 percent. The forecast for both years is 0.2 percent lower than earlier IMF estimates released in October last year. Looks […]

Rio cancels contract for Olympic tennis center due to delays

Reuters reported earlier today that the city of Rio de Janeiro canceled the construction contract for the Olympic tennis center on yesterday, fining contractors IBEG Engenharia e Construções, Tangran Engenharia and Grupo Damiani responsible for delays and breach of contract for the nearly finished venue.Last week, laid off workers at the tennis center protested outside, saying […]

Emerging Markets Insights

a blog by Frontier Strategy Group


A blog on macroeconomics and public policy by Tony Yates.