Why Invest in Brazil and the 2018 Elections

doria-alckmin-lula-bolsonaro1k-jol-l-o-mm190652.jpgJust wanted to share this article from Seeking Alpha. It has a very optimistic tone but the political analysis is a bit far-off in my opinion. Alckmin doesn’t really have any real chances. He has been tried and tested and is not a viable national-level politician. Also, Lula and Bolsonaro can’t be dismissed that easily. Bolsonaro will go down not because he is “far right” but rather because he has no deep or original policy ideas, which do not carry too heavy a weight in the Brazilian political debate anyway, but when the ideas he seem to have are out in the open and scrutinized, any sympathies centrists may nurture for him will go out the window. Regarding Lula, I strongly doubt that he will ever go to jail. If it happens the country will go up in flames and there will be no elections. I’m betting a Haddad (former São Paulo mayor)/Lula ticket will be good enough for the PT.

Dória is a mistery to me. He has a very reformist attitude but is aligning himself with some very conservative groups. He will split votes with Bolsonaro for the good of neither of them. Meirelles will be a big surprise in my opinion with Marina Silva and TV host Luciano Huck (or Joaquim Barbosa, Ciro Gomes, ACM Neto…pick your choice) jockeying for positions at the top of the polls.

PS: This Friday Bolsonaro will be speaking at an event here in DC. I’ll try to go and will report back with my impressions.

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Emerging Markets Insights

a blog by Frontier Strategy Group

longandvariable

A blog on macroeconomics and public policy by Tony Yates.

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